As of November 19, 2024, Russia has adopted a new nuclear doctrine. This doctrine touches on all things nuclear in the Russian military, including implementation, first-strike options, defensive use, and much more. The overhaul comes only a day after the United States approved the use of long-range ATACMS missiles to strike Russian targets inside Russia's borders. Ukraine had already been using domestically made drones and missiles to strike munitions storage, command and control, and training bases inside Russia. With the use of ATACMS, it would now be U.S.-made weapons doing the destruction. The use of ATACMS on Russian soil could easily be used as a pretext for nuclear use as it would trigger the “imminent threat to the existence of the Russian state” clause in Russia's nuclear doctrine.
Something we need to talk about first to understand the whole story is what Russia wants. At the start of this war, Russia wanted to take over Ukraine to gain land and expand its influence as a new imperial power. Now, Russia wants peace. You might be asking why Russia wants peace as it would seem they hold the upper hand in this war but you would be mistaken. Russia wants peace because it would give them time to replenish their extremely depleted army and revamp their military-industrial base. Peace would give Russia time to get much stronger and attack Ukraine at a later date. US and Ukrainian officials recognize what Russia is trying to do and have kept the pressure on not allowing Russia to get the break they so desperately want and need. It wouldn't be peace it would be a pause in the fighting so that Russia could strike at a later date. Russia wants “peace”-(a temporary pause in the fighting) not a real end to the war. The fact is: Russia is at its weakest right now because of the war and it is key for Ukraine to exploit this weakness by not giving them the break they want.
Second, we need to understand where Russia would want to use its arsenal. If they decided it was time to go the nuclear route they would likely strike somewhere in their own internationally recognized territory (not the new territory they claimed after the invasion). The reason they would do this is it would appear to be a defensive strike rather than an offensive strike. They would likely choose Kursk. The Kursk Oblast is partially under Ukrainian control, so the Russians could strike their own territory and still hit Ukrainian soldiers while claiming it was defense.
Thirdly, it's important to understand what type of strike package Russia would implement when hitting Ukrainian targets. Russia would likely use a tactical nuclear weapon rather than a strategic one. A tactical nuclear weapon is designed to hit one specific target and typically has a smaller yield warhead. Strategic nuclear weapons are the ones we often see in movies; the ones that destroy entire cities. Strategic nuclear weapons tend to have yields in the megaton range rather than the kiloton range. Russia wants to put on a show of force by using nuclear weapons while leaving room to escalate the situation further, effectively not overplaying their hand. By using a tactical nuclear weapon they would be able to put on the show Force while still retaining escalatory ability. A 20-kiloton or less Warhead would be plenty to put on a show of force while not being so much as to destroy vast amounts of their own land.
So now that we understand why Russia wants a pause in the war, and it's in Ukraine's best interest not to give it to them, we can explore how Russia may try to force this ‘peace’ to occur.
Russia claims ATACMS is threatening Russian sovereignty
Russia picks the strike package. Likely a missile with a single warhead. Less than 20KT of yield. This gives room for escalation to a strategic warhead rather than a tactical one.
Russia uses a tactical nuclear weapon on its own territory in Kursk, hitting Ukrainian troops. Now that they have shown they are not bluffing they threaten to do it again.
Russia offers peace terms immediately after the strike
Ukraine would be in a difficult position as it would need to accept the unfavorable terms or be faced with another nuclear attack.
The United States encourages Ukraine to accept unfavorable peace terms to avoid escalation.
It is unclear what exactly would happen after this point as there is no way to tell if Ukraine would accept peace terms or if it would try to call Russia's bluff or use nuclear weapons on Ukraine rather than inside Russian territory. As of the time of writing, there has not been a retaliatory strike for the ATACMS strike that took place on November 18th. The US Embassy in Kyiv has been evacuated as the world waits to see what will happen.
Sponsor
Being safe online is important. With all the scams and Hackers trying to steal your personal information, it is key that you can keep yourself and your loved ones safe. Scamers steal 12.5 billion dollars from people each year and unfortunately, the number is rising. Keep yourself protected on up to 10 devices with Nord Threat Protection anti virus. I use the service myself to stay safe online. I recommend it to anyone who spends time surfing the web or sending emails as phishing email scams have risen in the last few years. The 8 dollars a month could save you thousands. Get peace of mind and protection by clicking my sponsored link below to learn more and enjoy a discount on Nord Threat Protection.
Learn more: Nord Threat Protection
Related Posts
